A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
